PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for TS "CRISING" as of 18 July 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 14

Tropical Storm #CrisingPH (WIPHA)

Issued at 8:00 PM, 18 July 2025

Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

“CRISING” MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH WHILE PASSING CLOSE TO SANTA ANA, CAGAYAN.

Location of Center (7:00 PM):  The center of Tropical Storm CRISING was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Calayan, Cagayan (18.9°N, 122.4°E). 

Intensity:  Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa 

Present Movement:  North northwestward at 20 km/h 

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:  Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 550 km from the center 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 2

Wind threat:  Gale-force winds 

Luzon 

Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, the northern and central portions of Abra (Manabo, Pidigan, San Juan, Tayum, Langiden, Boliney, Sallapadan, Bucloc, Lagangilang, Danglas, La Paz, Licuan-Baay, Tineg, Malibcong, Peñarrubia, San Isidro, Daguioman, San Quintin, Dolores, Lagayan, Bangued, Bucay, Lacub), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Natonin, Paracelis), the eastern portion of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista), Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Cabugao, Sinait, Magsingal, San Juan, San Ildefonso, Santo Domingo, Bantay, San Vicente, Santa Catalina, Caoayan, City of Vigan, Santa) 

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

TCWS No.1

Wind threat: Strong winds 

Luzon

Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Abra, Benguet, the rest of Ilocos Sur, La Union, the northern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, San Manuel, Tayug, Sison, San Fabian, Pozorrubio, Laoac, Binalonan, San Jacinto, Manaoag, Mangaldan, Dagupan City, Binmaley, Lingayen, Labrador, Sual, City of Alaminos, Bolinao, Anda, Bani, Agno, Burgos, Mabini, Dasol, Calasiao, Santa Barbara, Mapandan, Bugallon), the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora), and the northeastern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan)

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 13 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone CRISING and the Southwest Monsoon.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.

• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):

• Today: Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Quezon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, and Sarangani.

• Tomorrow: Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.

• Sunday (20 July): Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Samar and Northern Samar.

Coastal Inundation

There is a minimal to moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m within 24 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 8 issued at 8:00 PM today for the details.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 3 issued at 5 PM today for the details.

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 6.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands

• Up to 4.5 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the remaining seaboards of Cagayan; and the seaboard of Isabela

• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. 

Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 3.5 m: The western seaboards of Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Palawan, and Antique; the southern seaboard of Iloilo; the western and southern seaboards of Negros Occidental and Guimaras

• Up to 3.0 m: The southern seaboards of Negros Oriental, Cebu, and Bohol; the seaboards of Siquijor and Camiguin; the northern seaboard of Zamboanga Peninsula; the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental; the remaining seaboards of Palawan

• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 2.5 m: The northeastern seaboard of Aurora and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Cebu and Bohol; the northern and western seaboards of Masbate; the southern seaboards of Quezon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, and Southern Leyte; the northern seaboards of Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte, and Surigao del Norte

• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Aurora, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, and Northern Samar; the northern seaboard of Camarines Norte; the eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the seaboards of Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands

• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• CRISING will move west northwestward within the next 12 hours. On the forecast track, it may make landfall or pass close to Babuyan Islands this evening. Afterwards, it will continue to move west northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow (19 July) morning or afternoon.

• CRISING will continue to intensify until it reaches Severe Tropical Storm category by tomorrow evening or Sunday (20 July) early morning.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA