PAGASA Weather Forecast for TYPHOON "PEPITO as of 11:00 AM November 15, 2024 (Friday)

 PAGASA WEATHER UPDATE: TYPHOON PEPITO as of 11:00 AM, 15 November 2024

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 3

Typhoon #PepitoPH (MAN-YI)

Issued at 11:00 AM, 15 November 2024

Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

“PEPITO” INTENSIFIES INTO A TYPHOON AS IT UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION

Location of Center (10:00 AM): The center of the eye of Typhoon PEPITO was estimated based on all available data at 630 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.6°N, 131.5°E). 

Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa 

Present Movement: Westward at 30 km/h 

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: 

Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 380 km from the center 

 TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No.2

VISAYAS:

The eastern portion of Northern Samar (Mapanas, Gamay, Palapag, Lapinig), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Dolores, Jipapad, Maslog)

 

Wind threat: Gale-force winds  

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

TCWS No.1

LUZON:

The southeastern portion of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate 

VISAYAS:

The rest of Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran

 

Wind threat: Strong winds

 Warning lead time: 36 hours

 Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

 Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next five days. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tomorrow (16 November) evening or on Sunday (17 November) early morning. However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon during the same time frame, over the eastern coast of Northern Samar tomorrow afternoon or evening, or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening remains not ruled out.

• Regardless of the landfall point, PEPITO will more likely move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the landmass of Bicol Region, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening or Monday (18 November) morning.

• Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. 

• PEPITO will continue to rapidly intensify today through tomorrow and may reach super typhoon category prior to its landfall tomorrow evening or on Sunday early morning. Although a slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of the weakening will occur on Sunday as PEPITO passes over landmass of Central Luzon. Nevertheless, it will traverse the country as a typhoon and may only be downgraded into a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA