PAGASA WEATHER UPDATE: TS KRISTINE as of 11:00 PM, 22 October 2024
Issued at 11:00 PM, 22 October 2024
SYNOPSIS: “KRISTINE” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF BICOL REGION.
Location of Center (10:00 PM): The center of Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data at 345 km East Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte or 475 km East of Infanta, Quezon (14.9°N, 126.1°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa
Present Movement: Northwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 760 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2 Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Luzon
The southern portion of mainland Cagayan (Peñablanca, Enrile, Tuguegarao City), Isabela, the northeastern portion of Quirino (Maddela), the northeastern portion of Aurora (Dinalungan, Casiguran, Dilasag), Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Norte (Basud, Daet, Talisay, Vinzons, Paracale, Mercedes), the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Garchitorena, Tinambac, Siruma, Lagonoy, Goa, San Jose, Saglay, Tigaon), the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Malinao, Tiwi) and the eastern portion of Sorsogon (Barcelona, Gubat, Prieto Diaz)
Visayas
The northeastern portion of Northern Samar (Palapag, Mapanas, Gamay, Laoang, Catubig, Lapinig, Pambujan, San Roque) and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, San Policarpo, Arteche)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No.1 Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Batanes, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, and Calamian Islands
Visayas
Aklan, Capiz, the northern portion of Antique (Libertad, Pandan, Sebaste, Culasi) including Caluya Islands, the northern portion of Iloilo (Sara, Batad, San Dionisio, Carles, Estancia, Balasan), the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao - Bucas Grande Group
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 9 issued at 11:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of KRISTINE is Wind Signal No. 3.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE and the Northeasterly Windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Tomorrow (23 October): MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao.
• Thursday (24 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
• Friday (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KRISTINE is forecast to move northwestward until tomorrow (23 October) evening before turning westward for the rest of the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow evening or on Thursday (24 October) early morning. It will then cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and emerge over the waters west of Ilocos Region on Thursday afternoon or evening. KRISTINE may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on Friday (25 October). Changes in forecast track is not ruled out, depending on the movement of the weather systems surrounding this tropical cyclone in the next few days.
• KRISTINE is forecast to gradually intensify into a severe tropical storm before making landfall. Slight weakening will occur while crossing Northern Luzon. Re-intensification may occur over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA
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