PAGASA Weather Forecast for Tropical Storm "KRISTINE" {TRAMI} as of 5:00 AM October 23, 2024 - PH Trending

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Wednesday, 23 October 2024

PAGASA Weather Forecast for Tropical Storm "KRISTINE" {TRAMI} as of 5:00 AM October 23, 2024

 PAGASA WEATHER UPDATE: TS KRISTINE as of 5:00 AM, 23 October 2024

Issued at 5:00 AM, 23 October 2024

SYNOPSIS: “KRISTINE” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE SEA EAST OF QUEZON"

Location of Center (4:00 AM):

The center of Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data at 340 km East of Infanta, Quezon or 180 km North Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (15.1°N, 124.8°E)  

Intensity:

Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa 

Present Movement:

West northwestward at 25 km/h 

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds 

Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 850 km from the center 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 2 Wind threat: Gale-force winds 

Luzon

Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, the northern portion of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig), the northern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel, San Ildefonso), the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta)  including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the northern and eastern portions of Camarines Sur (Calabanga, Goa, Tigaon, Sagñay, San Jose, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Siruma, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan), Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Malinao, Tiwi, Manito, Santo Domingo) and the eastern portion of Sorsogon (Barcelona, Gubat, Prieto Diaz, City of Sorsogon) 

Visayas

The northeastern portion of Northern Samar (Palapag, Mapanas, Gamay, Laoang, Catubig, Lapinig, Pambujan, San Roque) and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, San Policarpo, Arteche) -

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds 

Luzon

Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Pampanga, the rest of Zambales, Bataan, the rest of Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, the rest of Quezon, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Calamian Islands, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, and Calamian Islands 

Visayas

Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Guinaras, the northern portion of Negros Occidental (Pontevedra, La Castellana, Moises Padilla, Bago City, La Carlota City, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Bacolod City, San Enrique, Murcia, Silay City, City of Talisay, Enrique B. Magalona, Manapla, City of Victorias, Cadiz City, Sagay City, City of Escalante, Toboso, Calatrava, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City), the northern portion of Negros Oriental (Vallehermoso, Canlaon City, City of Guihulngan), the northern and central portions of Cebu (Alcantara, Argao, Dumanjug, Sibonga, Pinamungahan, Ronda, Liloan, Cebu City, Moalboal, Consolacion, Danao City, Borbon, Carmen, Daanbantayan, Tuburan, City of Bogo, Tabogon, City of Naga, Lapu-Lapu City, City of Carcar, Mandaue City, Catmon, Minglanilla, Toledo City, Cordova, Compostela, San Remigio, Balamban, Aloguinsan, San Fernando, Asturias, Barili, Medellin, Sogod, Tabuelan, City of Talisay) including Bantayan Islands and Camotes Islands, Bohol, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte 

Mindanao

Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao - Bucas Grande Group

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 10 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.

• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of KRISTINE is Wind Signal No. 3.

Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE and the Northeasterly Windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):

• Today (23 October): MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao.

• Tomorrow (24 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.

• Friday (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.

Coastal Inundation

There is a moderate to significant risk of life-threatening storm surge in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, and Catanduanes. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 4 issued at 2:00 AM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 5 issued at 5:00 AM today.

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

• Up to high seas over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.

• Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, northern Aurora, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur.

• Up to 6.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the seaboards of Quezon including Polillo Islands, and the seaboards of Northern Samar.

• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

• Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters: 

• Up to 5.0 m: The seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region and Visayas.

• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. 

• Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: 

• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Northern Mindanao, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Island Group, and Davao Oriental.

• Up to 3.0 m: Surigao del Sur and the remaining seaboards of Luzon.

• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Mindanao.

• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• KRISTINE is forecast to move generally northwestward for the next 24 hours before turning generally westward for the rest of the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora this evening or tomorrow (24 October) early morning. It will then cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and emerge over the waters west of Ilocos Region tomorrow afternoon. KRISTINE may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on Friday (25 October). 

• KRISTINE is forecast to gradually intensify into a severe tropical storm before making landfall. Slight weakening will occur while crossing Northern Luzon. Re-intensification may occur over the West Philippine Sea.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.

DOST-PAGASA



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