Issued at 4:00 AM, 29 August 2020
SYNOPSIS: At 3:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "JULIAN" (MAYSAK) was estimated based on all available data at 860 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (16.4 °N, 129.7 °E) with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. It remains almost stationary.
"JULIAN" INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY.
Track and intensity outlook:
"JULIAN" is forecast to move slowly northward today, then turn north-northeastward or northward tomorrow (30 August) and northwestward on Monday (31 August). On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone will remain over the Philippine Sea throughout the forecast period, far from the landmass. It is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday (31 August) evening.
This tropical cyclone will continuously intensify throughout the forecast period. It is forecast to reach typhoon category by tomorrow.
Hazards affecting land and coastal waters:
The raising of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is unlikely throughout the forecast period. Furthermore, "JULIAN" is less likely to directly cause high impact weather over the country.
The Southwest Monsoon is forecast to bring moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Those with small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea.
Other information:
The international name “MAYSAKâ€, which means “a kind of treeâ€, was contributed by Cambodia.
Forecast Weather Conditions:
Bicol Region and the provinces of Quezon, Aurora, Isabela and Cagayan will experience Cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms due to STS JULIAN. Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms.
Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers due to Southwest Monsoon / Localized Thunderstorms. Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms [1]
Forecast Position:
24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 845 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan(17.3°N, 129.7°E)
48 Hour(Monday morning):800 km East of Basco, Batanes( 21.5°N, 129.6°E)
72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 795 km Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 26.1°N, 126.7°E)
96 Hour(Wednesday morning):1,045 km North Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 29.3°N, 125.5°E)
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
Sources:
[1] DOST-PAGASA: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather#daily-weather-forecast
[2] Windy Motion Graph: https://www.windy.com/?14.628,121.046,5
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