Issued at 4:00 AM, 14 OCTOBER 2020
SYNOPSIS: At 3:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "OFEL" was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Maslog, Eastern Samar (12.1 °N, 125.2 °E) with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "OFEL" MAKES LANDFALL OVER CAN-AVID, EASTERN SAMAR.
Landfall: The center of Tropical Depression "OFEL" made its first landfall in the vicinity of Can-avid, Eastern Samar at 2:30 AM today and is currently crossing the Samar Island.
Track and intensity outlook:
Track: On the forecast track, "OFEL" will cross the Samar Island and emerge over the Samar Sea this morning. Afterwards, the tropical depression will move west-northwestward over the inland seas of Southern Luzon and may pass close or over Masbate, Romblon, and Mindoro Provinces. It is likely to emerge over the West Philippine Sea on tomorrow morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon.
Intensity: "OFEL" is forecast to remain a tropical depression while crossing the Samar Island-Southern Luzon area. After crossing Mindoro Island tomorrow morning, this weather disturbance is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Rainfall:
Today through tomorrow morning: "OFEL" will bring moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Marinduque, Romblon, Quezon, Batangas, and Mindoro Provinces. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will also be experienced over Metro Manila, Aurora, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, and the rest of CALABARZON due to "OFEL" and over most of Mindanao due to the Southwest Monsoon.
Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Winds:
Strong- to near gale-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 during the passage of the tropical depression. Details of potential wind damage can be found on the TCWS section of this bulletin.
Occasional gusts associated with the northeasterly surface wind flow enhanced by "OFEL" and Tropical Storm "NANGKA" (outside PAR) may be experienced over Batanes, the northern and eastern portions of Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), the northern portions of Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and Quezon, the eastern portion of Isabela, and Aurora, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.
Forecast Position:
24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): In the vicinity of Sablayan, Occidental Mindoro(13 °N, 121.1 °E)
48 Hour(Friday morning):440 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro( 13.5 °N, 117.1 °E)
72 Hour(Saturday morning): 980 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 13.8 °N, 112.1 °E)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1
Luzon:
The southern portion of Batangas (Batangas City,Ibaan,Padre Garcia,Rosario,San Juan,Taysan,Lobo),the southern portion of Quezon (Tagkawayan,Guinayangan,Calauag,Alabat,Perez,Quezon,San Francisco,San Andres,San Narciso,Mulanay,Buenavista,Lopez,General Luna, Gumaca,Macalelon,Pitogo,Unisan,Plaridel,Atimonan,Agdangan,Padre Burgos,Lucena City,Pagbilao,Candelaria,Sariaya,Tiaong,San Antonio,Tayabas City,Dolores,Catanauan)
and Burias Islands)
Visayas
Northern Samar,Eastern Samar,Samar,Biliran,and the northern portion of Leyte (Tabango,Leyte,San Isidro,Calubian,Capoocan,Carigara,Jaro,Pastrana,Dagami,Tabontabon,Tanauan,Palo,Santa Fe,Alangalang,Tacloban City,Babatngon,San Miguel,Barugo,Tunga)
FORECAST WEATHER CONDITIONS
Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Samar provinces, Mindoro provinces, Marinduque, and Romblon will experience Rains with gusty winds due to TD -OFEL-. Possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to heavy rains. Possible very light to light damage to structures and vegetation due to strong winds.
Mindanao, Palawan, Metro Manila, Aurora, Bulacan, and the rest of Visayas will experience Cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms due to TD -OFEL- / Southwest Monsoon. Possible flash floods or landslides due to light to moderate to at times heavy rains.
The rest of Luzon will experience Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers due to Localized Thunderstorms. Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms.
For other information about weather, please log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or call at (02)927-1335/(02)926-4258
Sources:
[1] DOST-PAGASA: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather#daily-weather-forecast
[2] Windy Motion Graph: https://www.windy.com/?14.628,121.046,5
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