PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for Typhoon "Rolly" as of 5:00 PM - 01 November 2020.

Issued at 5:00 PM, 1 NOVEMBER 2020

SYNOPSIS: At 4:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at 50 km South Southwest of Tayabas, Quezon(13.6°N, 121.4°E).  

Strength Maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 230 km/h. 

Movement Moving Westward at 25 km/h. 

TYPHOON "ROLLY"  IS NOW HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF BATANGAS.

Destructive winds and intense rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon is prevailing or expected within 12 hours over the Batangas and Cavite. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas. 

Track and intensity outlook:

• The center of this typhoon will move towards Batangas-Cavite area this late afternoon through evening. Between 5:00 to 7:00 PM, the center of the eye of “ROLLY” is located around 70 km south of Metro Manila. “ROLLY” is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tonight. During its traverse of Southern Luzon, “ROLLY” is forecast to weaken but will emerge as a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea. 

Hazards affecting land areas:

• Rainfall: Today, the passage of Typhoon “ROLLY” will bring heavy to at times intense rains over CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela. Moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate. 

• Strong winds: Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.

• Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas (facing Tayabas Bay), and most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon; up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Albay, Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands), the northern coastal area of Mindoro Provinces, and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon, and Batangas. Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.  

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS. 

• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other information:

• TCWS elsewhere has been lowered or lifted.

Forecast Positions

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 300 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.1°N, 117.2°E)

• 48 Hour (Tuesday afternoon):665 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.0°N, 113.8°E)

• 72 Hour (Wednesday afternoon): 935 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.7°N, 111.6°E) 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #3

(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)

 The southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Narciso, Subic, Olongapo City, Castillejos, San Antonio), Bataan, the southern portion of Pampanga (Floridablanca, Guagua, Minalin, Apalit, Macabebe, Masantol, Sasmuan, Lubao), the southern portion of Bulacan (Baliuag, Bustos, Angat, Norzagaray, San Jose del Monte City, Santa Maria, Pandi, Plaridel, Pulilan, Calumpit, Malolos City, Guiguinto, Balagtas, Bocaue, Marilao, Meycauayan City, Obando, Bulacan, Paombong, Hagonoy), Rizal, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque, the northwestern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island, and the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan, Victoria, Naujan Lake, Pola, Socorro) 

TCWS #2

(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours) 

The rest of Zambales, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, the southern portion of Tarlac (Concepcion, Capas, Bamban),  the rest of Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, and the southern portion of Nueva Ecija (General Tinio, Gapan City, Peñaranda, San Leonardo, Jaen, San Isidro, Cabiao, San Antonio)

TCWS #1

(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours) 

Mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur,  La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Tarlac, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Burias Island, Romblon, and Calamian Islands

For other information about weather, please log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or call at (02)927-1335/(02)926-4258

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Sources:
[1] DOST-PAGASA: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather#daily-weather-forecast
[2] Windy Motion Graph: https://www.windy.com/?14.628,121.046,