PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for New Severe Tropical Storm as of 5:00 PM 29 October 2020.

Issued at 5:00 PM, 29 OCTOBER 2020

SYNOPSIS: Northeasterly Surface Windflow affecting Extreme Northern Luzon.  Meanwhile, "GONI" INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING WESTWARD.

Location of Center  (10:00 AM today)

The center of Severe Tropical Storm "GONI" was estimated based on all available data at 1,545 km East of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)(16.6°N,136.6°E)

Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 km/h near the center

Gustiness: Up to 115 km/h

Movement: West at 10 km/h

Forecast Positions and Intensities

Tomorrow morning

30 October 2020 1,140 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.3°N, 132.8°E) Typhoon

Saturday morning

31 October 2020 845 km East of Infanta, Quezon (15.3°N, 129.5°E) Typhoon

Sunday morning

01 November 2020 275 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.3°N, 125.5°E) Typhoon

Monday morning

02 November 2020 In the vicinity of Capas, Tarlac (15.3°N, 120.3°E) Typhoon

Tuesday morning

03 November 2020 415 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.5°N, 116.1°E) Typhoon

Track and intensity outlook:

Track: Severe Tropical Storm "GONI" will continue to move westward today, then generally southwestward tomorrow morning until Saturday morning. It is forecast to enter the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon or evening. On the forecast track, "GONI" will begin to move generally westward by Saturday evening, then west-northwestward by Sunday as it moves towards Quezon - Aurora area.

Intensity: "GONI" intensified into a severe tropical storm at 8:00 AM today. It is forecast to reach typhoon category within 24 hours and will continue to intensify while moving over the Philippine Sea.

Hazards affecting land and coastal waters:

"GONI" has no direct effect yet over any parts of the country. However, as it moves towards eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon, it may bring heavy rains over those areas starting this Friday or this weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 may be raised over some provinces in Bicol Region and Northern Samar by Friday evening.

Other information:

Once inside the PAR, "GONI" will be given local name "ROLLY".

Other tropical systems being monitored:

The Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of Mindanao developed into Tropical Depression at 8:00 AM today. At 10:00 AM today, it was estimated based on all available data at 2,510 km East of Mindanao (6.2°N,148.5°E) with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 15 km/h. This Tropical Depression is forecast to intensify into tropical storm within 24 hours and may enter the PAR on Monday (02 November) or Tuesday (03 November). Tropical Cyclone Advisory for this disturbance will be issued this afternoon or evening.

Forecast Weather Conditions

Caraga and Davao Region will experience Cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms due to ITCZ. Possible flash floods or landslides during moderate to at times heavy rains.

Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Batanes, and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands will experience Cloudy skies with scattered rains due to Northeasterly Surface Windflow Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers due to Localized Thunderstorms. Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms.

For other information about weather, please log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or call at (02)927-1335/(02)926-4258

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Sources:
[1] DOST-PAGASA: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather#daily-weather-forecast
[2] Windy Motion Graph: https://www.windy.com/?14.628,121.046,