PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for Typhoon "Rolly" as of 11:00 PM 29 October 2020.

Issued at 11:00 PM, 29 OCTOBER 2020

SYNOPSIS: "ROLLY" ENTERS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A TYPHOON.

Track and intensity outlook:

Track: "ROLLY" is forecast to move west-southwestward or southwestward tomorrow until Saturday evening. Afterwards, the typhoon will turn more west-northwestward as it moves over the sea off the coast of Bicol Region towards the eastern coast of Central Luzon-Quezon area. On the forecast track, the center of the eye of "ROLLY" is likely to make landfall over the Central Luzon-Quezon area on Sunday evening or Monday morning.

Intensity: "ROLLY" was upgraded to typhoon category at 8:00 PM today and has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours. The typhoon is forecast to continuously intensify over the Philippine Sea and is likely to make landfall at peak intensity of 165-185 km/h.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Rainfall: Tonight through tomorrow morning, the trough of the typhoon will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, and Caraga. The rainbands of the typhoon will likely bring rains over Bicol Region and the eastern section of Northern and Central Luzon beginning on Saturday or Sunday.

Strong winds: No locality is currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1. However, in anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions due to "ROLLY", TCWS #1 may be raised over several provinces in the Bicol Region as early as tomorrow. Given that it is likely for this typhoon to continue intensifying prior to landfall, the highest possible TCWS that will be raised throughout the passage of this typhoon will be TCWS #3 or #4 (associated with destructive to very destructive typhoon-force winds).

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

Rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur and the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan due to the northeasterlies. A Gale Warning is in effect for these waters. As such, sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Information on international name:

This tropical cyclone uses the international name "GONI" (meaning: swan). The name was contributed by the Republic of Korea.

Other tropical systems being monitored:

At 8:00 PM today, the Tropical Depression outside the PAR has intensified into Tropical Storm "ATSANI". Its center was estimated at 2,430 km East of Mindanao (8.2 ºN, 148.4 ºE). It has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is moving northward at 20 km/h. Based on all available meteorological data, this tropical cyclone is likely to enter the PAR on Sunday or Monday. However, it is less likely to bring severe weather over any locality of the country over the next 3 days. Once inside the PAR, "ATSANI" will be assigned the domestic name "SIONY".

Location of Eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at 1,280 km East of Central Luzon (16.5 °N, 134.1 °E )

Movement: Moving Westward at 20 km/h

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 150 km/h

Forecast Position

24 Hour(Tomorrow evening): 970 km East of Central Luzon(16.3 °N, 131.2 °E)

48 Hour(Saturday evening):740 km East of Infanta, Quezon( 15.2 °N, 128.5 °E)

72 Hour(Sunday evening): 255 km East of Infanta, Quezon( 14.9 °N, 124.0 °E)

96 Hour(Monday evening):40 km North Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan( 16.4 °N, 120.2 °E)

120 Hour(Tuesday evening):325 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan( 16.4 °N, 117.3 °E)

Wind Signal: No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 AM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.

For other information about weather, please log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or call at (02)927-1335/(02)926-4258

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Sources:
[1] DOST-PAGASA: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather#daily-weather-forecast
[2] Windy Motion Graph: https://www.windy.com/?14.628,121.046,