PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for Typhoon "Rolly" as of 5:00 PM 30 October 2020. - PH Trending

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Friday 30 October 2020

PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for Typhoon "Rolly" as of 5:00 PM 30 October 2020.

Issued at 5:00 PM, 30 OCTOBER 2020


Track and intensity outlook:

Track: "ROLLY" is forecast to move west-southwestward this afternoon until tomorrow evening. Afterwards, the typhoon will turn west-northwestward as it moves over the sea off the coast of Bicol Region towards the eastern coast of Aurora-Quezon area. On the forecast track, the center of the eye of "ROLLY" is likely to make landfall over the Aurora-Quezon area on Sunday evening or Monday early morning.

Intensity: The typhoon is forecast to continuously intensify over the Philippine Sea and is likely to make landfall at intensity of 175-195 km/h.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Rainfall: Today through tomorrow morning, the trough of the typhoon and the northeasterly surface windflow will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela. The typhoon will likely bring heavy to intense rains over Northern and Central Luzon and Bicol Region, especially those areas along the track of "ROLLY", beginning tomorrow or Sunday.

Strong winds: Strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 within 36 hours of the raising of the wind signal. TCWS #1 may be raised over the northern portion of Northern Samar and the rest of Bicol Region in the next bulletin. Given that it is likely for this typhoon to continue intensifying prior to landfall, the highest possible TCWS that will be raised throughout the passage of this typhoon will be TCWS #4 (associated with destructive to very destructive typhoon-force winds).

Storm surge: A storm surge of up to 2.0 m may be experienced over the coastal areas of Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

Today, rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 4.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Quezon including Polillo Islands, and the northern seaboards of Camarines Provinces. Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao and the remaining seaboards of Luzon. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other tropical systems being monitored:
At 4:00 PM today, the Tropical Storm "ATSANI" outside PAR was estimated at 1,865 km East of Visayas (11.1 ºN, 142.8 ºE). It has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 35 km/h. For more information, refer to Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1 issued at 5PM today.

Location of Eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at 980 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.2 °N, 131.3 °E )
Movement: Moving Westward at 20 km/h
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 230 km/h

Forecast Position
24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 685 km East of Infanta, Quezon(15.0 °N, 128.0 °E)
48 Hour(Sunday afternoon):55 km North of Daet, Camarines Norte( 14.6 °N, 123.0 °E)
72 Hour(Monday afternoon): 260 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan( 16.1 °N, 117.9 °E)
96 Hour(Tuesday afternoon):670 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (OUTSIDE PAR)( 15.8 °N, 114.1 °E)
120 Hour(Wednesday afternoon):900 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 15.6 °N, 111.6 °E)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1
Luzon: Catanduanes

Meteorological Condition
A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
Winds of 30-60 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)

Impact of the Wind
Twigs and branches of small trees may be broken.
Some banana plants may be tilted or downed.
Some houses of very light materials (nipa and cogon) may be partially unroofed.
Unless this warning signal is upgraded during the entire existence of the tropical cyclone, only very light or no damage at all may be sustained by the exposed communities.
Rice crop, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Precautionary Measures
When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.

What To Do
Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
Clean up drainage system.
Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.

For other information about weather, please log on to or or call at (02)927-1335/(02)926-4258


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