PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for Typhoon "Rolly" as of 5:00 AM 31 October 2020.

Issued at 5:00 AM, 31 OCTOBER 2020

SYNOPSIS: TYPHOON "ROLLY" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TOWARDS BICOL REGION

Track and intensity outlook:

Track: On the forecast track, "ROLLY" will move west-southwestward today towards the sea off the coast of Bicol Region. Beginning tomorrow early morning, it will gradually turn towards the west-northwest, bringing its inner rainbands-eyewall region near or over Catanduanes and the Camarines Provinces during the morning-afternoon hours and over Quezon-southern Aurora area during the afternoon-evening hours. The center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass very close or over the Calaguas Islands tomorrow afternoon and make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon tomorrow evening. After crossing Central Luzon, the center of "ROLLY" is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.

Intensity: Owing to very favorable conditions, there is remains a possibility that this typhoon will reach Super Typhoon category over the next 12 hours. However, "ROLLY" is more likely to be near Super Typhoon strength (185-215 km/h) by time it grazes Bicol Region and makes landfall over Quezon. During its traverse over Luzon, "ROLLY" is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Rainfall: This morning through this evening, the trough of "ROLLY" will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Visayas, Negros Occidental, Leyte. Southern Leyte, Palawan including Cuyo Islands, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Sulu Archipelago. This late evening through tomorrow, heavy to intense rains due to "ROLLY" will be experienced over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Central Luzon Marinduque, and the northern portions of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro. Moderate to heavy rains will also be experienced over the Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.

Strong winds: In anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the approaching typhoon, more areas are now placed under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1. The wind signal in some provinces in the Bicol Region are now upgraded to TCWS #2 as damaging gale-force to storm-force winds is expected to affect these areas in the next 24 hours. TCWS #3 (for destructive typhoon-force winds) may be raised over portions of Bicol Region later today. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #4 (for very destructive typhoon-force winds). Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela (that are not under TCWS #1).

Storm surge: There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Marinduque, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar and the other coastal areas of Quezon in the next 48 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other tropical systems being monitored:

At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "ATSANI" was estimated at 1,605 km East of Visayas (12.4 °N, 140.4 °E). It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 25 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon. However, it remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Location of Eye/center

At 4:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at 655 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (16.7 °N, 129.4 °E )

Movement: Moving Westward at 20 km/h

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h

Forecast Position

24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 110 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes(14.3 °N, 124.9 °E)

48 Hour(Monday morning):50 km West of Iba, Zambales( 15.3 °N, 119.5 °E)

72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 545 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)( 15.5 °N, 114.9 °E)

96 Hour(Wednesday morning):910 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 15.3 °N, 111.5 °E)

Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS) 

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2

AFFECTED AREAS

Luzon

Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Siruma, Presentacion, San Jose, Goa, Buhi, Sagnay, Tigaon, Ocampo, Iriga City, Baao, Nabua, Bato, Balatan, Bula, Pili, Calabanga, Naga City, Bombon, Magarao, Canaman, Gainza, Milaor, Camaligan, Minalabac), Albay, and Sorsogon

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1

AFFECTED AREAS

Luzon

Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Pangasinan, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and the southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo).

Visayas

Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo), and the northern portion of Biliran (Kawayan, Maripipi)

Mindanao

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Sources:
[1] DOST-PAGASA: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather#daily-weather-forecast
[2] Windy Motion Graph: https://www.windy.com/?14.628,121.046,