PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for Typhoon "Rolly" as of 5:00 PM 31 October 2020.

Issued at 5:00 PM, 31 OCTOBER 2020

SYNOPSIS: TYPHOON "ROLLY" CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS BICOL REGION.

Track and intensity outlook:

Track: On the forecast track, the center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass over Catanduanes - mainland Camarines Provinces area tomorrow morning, and over mainland Quezon tomorrow afternoon. Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces tomorrow early morning through afternoon and over Quezon tomorrow afternoon through evening. After crossing the Southern Luzon - Metro Manila area, the center of "ROLLY" is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday early morning.

Intensity: "ROLLY" is likely to remain a typhoon category (185-205 km/h) by the time it makes landfall. While traversing over Luzon, "ROLLY" is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Rainfall: Today, the outer rainbands of "ROLLY" will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Beginning tomorrow early morning, the passage of Typhoon "ROLLY" will bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Zambales, Bataan, Marinduque, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro. Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains (especially the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon) will be experienced over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and the rest of Central Luzon. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.

Strong winds: Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #4 (for very destructive typhoon-force winds). Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela (that are not under TCWS #1).

Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge of more than 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Provinces, and Catanduanes; 2.1 to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas and the southwestern coastal area of Quezon; 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Zambales, Occidental Mindoro, the rest of the coastal areas of Bicol Region, Batangas, and Quezon in the next 24 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast. For more information, please refer to Storm Surge Warning #1 issued at 2PM today posted on PAGASA’s official website.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other tropical systems being monitored:

At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "ATSANI" was estimated at 1,520 km East of Southern Luzon (14.3 °N, 138.3 °E). It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving northwestward at 25 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon. However, it remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Location of Eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at 345 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.5 °N, 127.3 °E )

Movement: Moving West Southwestward at 25 km/h

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h

Forecast Position

24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): In the vicinity of Lopez, Quezon(13.9 °N, 122.3 °E)

48 Hour(Monday afternoon):245 km West of Iba, Zambales( 15.3 °N, 117.7 °E)

72 Hour(Tuesday afternoon): 630 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)( 15.1 °N, 114.1 °E)

96 Hour(Wednesday afternoon):925 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 14.7 °N, 111.7 °E)

Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3

AFFECTED AREAS

Luzon

Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Cabusao, Libmanan, Pasacao, Pamplona, Magarao, Bombon, Calabanga, Canaman, Camaligan, Gainza, Naga City, Milaor, San Fernando, Minalabac, Pili, Ocampo, Baao, Bula, Balatan, Nabua, Bato, Iriga City, Buhi, Sagnay, Tigaon, Goa, Tinambac, Siruma, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan), and Albay

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2

AFFECTED AREAS

Luzon

Bulacan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island

Visayas

Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Hinabangan, Paranas, Motiong, Jiabong, Catbalogan City, San Jose de Buan, San Jorge, Tarangnan, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Matuguinao, Calbayog City, Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Pagsanghan), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1

AFFECTED AREAS

Luzon

Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Pangasinan, La Union, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Quirino, Gregorio Del Pilar, Salcedo, San Emilio, Candon City, Galimuyod, Santa Lucia, Cervantes, Sigay, Santa Cruz, Suyo, Tagudin, Alilem, Sugpon), Mountain Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and the central and southern portions of Isabela (Mallig, Quirino, Ilagan, Roxas, San Manuel, Burgos, Gamu, Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Aurora, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Angadanan, Alicia, San Isidro, Ramon, Santiago City, Cordon), and Calamian Islands

Visayas

The rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, the northern portion of Leyte (Leyte, Tabango, San Isidro, Calubian, Capoocan, Carigara, Tunga, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City), the northwestern portion of Aklan (Numancia, Lezo, Makato, Tangalan, Ibajay, Nabas, Malay, Buruanga, Kalibo), and the northwestern portion of Antique (Libertad, Pandan)

Mindanao

Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 PM today.

For other information about weather, please log on to www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or call at (02)927-1335/(02)926-4258

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Sources:
[1] DOST-PAGASA: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather#daily-weather-forecast
[2] Windy Motion Graph: https://www.windy.com/?14.628,121.046,