PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for STS "Ulysses"as of 5:00 AM - 11 November 2020. - PH Trending

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Wednesday 11 November 2020

PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for STS "Ulysses"as of 5:00 AM - 11 November 2020.

Issued at 5:00 AM, 11 NOVEMBER 2020

Synopsis: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 180 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 415 km East of Infanta, Quezon (14.6 °N, 125.5 °E )with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h moving Northwestward at 15 km/h.


Track and Intensity Outlook:

Track: On the forecast track, Severe Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally westward throughout the forecast period and pass over the seas north of Catanduanes between this morning and afternoon and north of Camarines Provinces between this afternoon or evening. Due to the orientation of the track forecast, these provinces may fall within the inner rainbands of this storm during the passage. The center of “ULYSSES” is forecast to make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon between tonight and tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, “ULYSSES” will cross mainland Luzon and emerge over the western seaboard of Central Luzon between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensify into a typhoon within the next 12 hours and reach its peak intensity of 130-155 km/h prior to landfall. “ULYSSES” may slightly weaken as it crosses mainland Luzon due to the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges along its projected path. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon during its traverse.

Forecast Position

24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 20 km North Northeast of Infanta, Quezon(14.9°N, 121.7°E)
48 Hour(Friday morning):355 km West of Iba, Zambales( 15.1°N, 116.7°E)
72 Hour(Saturday morning): 790 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)( 15.2°N, 112.6°E)
96 Hour(Sunday morning):1,275 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 16.0°N, 108.4°E)

Hazards affecting land areas:

Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the storm. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of “ULYSSES” will be TCWS #3.

Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2

ritao, Santa Fe, Alfonso Castaneda), the eastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, San Manuel, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan, Tayug, Santa Maria, Balungao, Asingan, Urdaneta City, Malasiqui, Bayambang, Basista, Bautista, Alcala, Villasis, Rosales, Binalonan, Laoac, Santo Tomas), the southern portion of Zambales (Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Marcelino, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City), Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Marinduque, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, and Burias and Ticao Islands

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1

Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Zambales, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and the rest of Masbate

Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)

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