PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for TS "Ulysses"as of 5:00 PM - 10 November 2020. - PH Trending

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Tuesday 10 November 2020

PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for TS "Ulysses"as of 5:00 PM - 10 November 2020.

Issued at 5:00 PM, 10 NOVEMBER 2020

Synopsis: At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data at 375 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 500 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.4 °N, 127.6 °E ) with aximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h moving Northwestward at 15 km/h.


Track and Intensity Outlook:

Track: On the forecast track, Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally west-northwestward today, then turn westward tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, the center of “ULYSSES” is more likely to make landfall over Quezon on Thursday early morning, with a close approach of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon and evening, respectively. However, slight southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm tonight. Owing to favorable conditions, this storm may rapidly intensify into typhoon category by tomorrow morning and reach its peak intensity (130-155 km/h) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Landfall at or near peak intensity is highly likely.

Forecast Position

24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 90 km North of Virac, Catanduanes(14.4°N, 124.3°E)
48 Hour(Thursday afternoon):110 km West of Subic, Zambales( 14.7°N, 119.3°E)
72 Hour(Friday afternoon): 590 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)( 14.8°N, 114.8°E)
96 Hour(Saturday afternoon):985 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)( 15.2°N, 110.8°E)

Hazards affecting land areas:

Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the storm. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of “ULYSSES” will be TCWS #3.

Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2

Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur, and the eastern portion of Camarines Norte (San Vicente, Talisay, Daet, San Lorenzo Ruiz, Basud, Mercedes)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1

Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the eastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan, Balungao, Rosales, Santa Maria, Tayug, Asingan, San Manuel), Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pamapanga, Bulacan, the central and southern portions of Zambales (Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Marcelino, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City, San Antonio) , Bataan, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Camarines Norte, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island

Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)

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