PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for STS “MARING” as of 8AM 12 October 2021 - PH Trending

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Tuesday, 12 October 2021

PAGASA Weather Forecast Update for STS “MARING” as of 8AM 12 October 2021

Severe Tropical Storm “MaringPH” (KOMPASU)

Issued at 8:00 AM, 12 October 2021

Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today


• Location of Center (7:00 AM)

The center of Severe Tropical Storm “MARING” was estimated based on all available data over 230 km West of Calayan, Cagayan (19.0°N, 119.3°E) 

• Intensity 

Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa 

• Present Movement 

Westward at 25 km/h 

• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds 

Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 850 km from the center 


TCWS No. 2 (Damaging gale- to storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours) 


Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Isabela (Palanan, Divilacan, Maconacon, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, Mallig, Quezon), Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur

TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)


The rest of Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, the northern portion of Bataan (Samal, Morong, Dinalupihan, Abucay, Orani, Hermosa), and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands


Heavy Rainfall

• Today, heavy to intense rains are highly likely over Ilocos Region, Benguet, Ifugao, Abra, and Mountain Province. Moderate to heavy rains are highly likely over Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are likely over Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, and the rest Central Luzon.

• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.

• Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Tropical Storm “MARING”, monsoon rains are possible over Western Visayas, Palawan, and Occidental Mindoro in the next 24 hours. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #5 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast at 4:00 AM today.

Severe Winds

• Winds will continue to reach gale-force to storm-force strength within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 is in effect. This may result in generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.

• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with higher gusts will continue within any of the areas where TCWS #1 is currently in effect. This may generally bring up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.

• The expansive wind field of the severe tropical storm and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring gusty conditions reaching strong to gale-force in strength over Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Zamboanga del Norte, and the rest of Luzon in the next 24 hours.

Coastal Inundation

A minimal to moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching up to 1.0 m in height may occur in the next 24 hours. Rising sea water along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Batanes, northern Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning #3 for Severe Tropical Storm “MARING” issued at 2:00 AM today.


• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (2.8 to 7.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect. These conditions are risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside.

• Under the influence of Severe Tropical Storm “MARING” and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, Gale Warning remains in effect for the western seaboard of Central Luzon (not under any TCWS), the seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas, and the western, eastern, and northern seaboards of Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #9 issued at 5:00 AM today.

• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will prevail the remaining seaboards of the country. These conditions are risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.


• Severe Tropical Storm “MARING” will continue to move westward over the West Philippine Sea throughout the forecast period. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning or afternoon. Outside the PAR, “MARING” will maintain a westward heading and is likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Hainan, China tomorrow evening.

• Within the next 36 hours, the storm is forecast to gradually intensify but is becoming less likely to reach typhoon category prior to making landfall over Hainan Island.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Unless superseded by an intermediate bulletin the next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.




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